Buckle Up – Conflicts May Define the 2020’s
The decade between 2021 and 2030 will more likely be defined by conflict than it will by anything else. How can business leaders navigate these murky waters and safely land their institutions on solid ground
The decade between 2021 and 2030 will more likely be defined by conflict than it will by anything else. How can business leaders navigate these murky waters and safely land their institutions on solid ground at the end of the decade?
According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), in its 29 December 2021 report titled ’10 Conflicts to Watch in 2022′, “after a year that saw an assault on the US Capitol, horrific bloodshed in Ethiopia, a Taliban triumph in Afghanistan, great power showdowns over Ukraine and Taiwan amidst dwindling US ambition on the global stage, COVID 19 and a climate emergency, it’s easy to see a world careening off the tracks”.
The ICG report points to the following conflicts as defining:
1. Ukraine
2. Ethiopia
3. Afghanistan
4. US and China
5. Iran Vs the US and Israel
6. Yemen
7. Israel – Palestine
8. Haiti
9. Myanmar
10. Islamist Militancy in Africa
The implications of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine are already felt across the globe with skyrocketing inflation and a brewing humanitarian crisis in Europe not seen since the end of the second world war. In Africa, as weak states struggle against nimble militant factions across “vast hinterlands where central governments hold little sway”, the picture is grim especially against the backdrop of systemic corruption in some states that continues to fan the embers of their conflicts.
How will a conflict soaked decade impact the global economy? The International Security Development Center (ISDC) reports that “violent conflict has a negative effect on economic output as it disrupts production, prioritizes military spending over other more productive public expenditure and encourages portfolio substitution by shifting assets from violent to more peaceful countries”. The ISDC further reported that “wars reduce the global economy by 12%; but some countries gain economically from violent conflicts”.
To mitigate the risk of a potential shrink of global business opportunity by about 12%, business leaders will need to find ways to ride the tides that this decades conflicts will create. I reckon that an offensive rather than a defensive business posture may provide the corporate mental framework that galvanizes the team to create value where competitors see challenges. To that extent, perception may very well be the reality of organizations at the turn of the decade: those that perceive conflict as requiring a defensive posture will flounder while those that take on an offensive approach will most likely arrive shore safely.
