First Published October 14, 2023

On Saturday October 7, 2023 , Hamas the governing authority for Gaza carried out a coordinated terrorist attack on Israel, raping, maiming and killing innocent civilians in its wake, reminiscent of the 9/11 attacks on the US in 2001.

Although widespread condemnation has followed the misadventure of Hamas and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has mobilized to bring the situation under control, the immediate impact has seen thousands of casualties on both sides and a further fracturing of the world along cold war and religious lines.

The discernible reason for this unprovoked attack may be obvious: resentment and hate for Israel. The less discernible reason may be the growing power vacuum created by a weakening US position and its conflicting foreign policy that views appeasement of its enemies as one of the items in its policy arsenal. To the consternation of its enemies, America seems to be increasingly willing to cut its own nose to spite its face.

In a multi-polar world, the ramifications of this policy tantrum from the biggest military power on the planet creates space for other ambitious state actors like China, North Korea, Russia and Iran as well as non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram to fill in the gaps. If the trend persists, It is entirely plausible to imagine a scenario in the 2030’s where most of the world ceases to catch cold when America sneezes economically, militarily or politically.

While the current theatre of conflict shifts from Israel to Gaza in the coming days, the ricochet will be felt around the world as countries take sides. In Africa, a continent still reeling under the impact of Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War, further food and energy inflation is expected to exert more pressure on the over 400 million people living under the extreme poverty and hunger brackets fueling further instability in the region.

As the continent grapples with coup d’états fueled by anticolonialism sentiments, further military incursions upending fragile democratic institutions may become commonplace; questioning democracy as adequate for addressing instability and insecurity in the wider world and across the continent.

Western countries led by the US may be unwittingly demarketing democracy, as they move away from consensus on shared values and ideals in preference for ‘one-night-stand’ type relationships of convenience. In a multi-polar world such as we are speeding into, state sponsored terrorism against perceived enemies may be the burial ground for democracy into the 2050’s. Africa must protect its own interests and boundaries from becoming the worlds theatre of conflict between established and emerging military powers in their struggle for allies and resources.

If illegitimate governments become widespread, nonstate actors may be emboldened as they pledge allegiance to East or West, seizing territories – Crimea style – leading to fragmentation of weak countries. A new map of the world may need to be redrawn in the 2030’s.

What must Africa do to mitigate the risks associated with a changing world order? First and foremost, the continent must rid itself of compromised and corrupt leaders . The biggest threat that the continent faces is from compromised and weak leadership. The right leadership will create the enabling environment for a ‘Pan African common front’ as the continent interfaces and negotiates with different interest groups from East to West.

The emerging order can be an opportunity for Africa. As the West seeks energy independence from Russia and looks for manufacturing independence from China, and as the East seeks allies and new markets, Africa can position itself as the alternative. But it must not negotiate cap in hand.

The continent must deploy a strategy that seeks to capture and retain as much value as possible for its people, creating secondary and tertiary value from its abundant human and material resources. This was the strategic posture of Switzerland in Word War 2.

The next 30 years leading up to 2050 can be Africa’s golden years. If mismanaged, the continent may enter into a vortex of systemic slavery, leaving it worse than it has ever been in recorded history. God forbid!